Tuesday, April 22, 2008

Secondary guesses on the primary

Fox has a pretty steady 53-54% share running for Hilary with 35% of precincts reporting. If that holds, then she's somewhat undershot the punditry's bar for her. Now she and her folks will have to blab it up as a triumph of epic proportions. In fact, they already are. The race goes on. And Barone is now saying that this will give her a very slight lead in total popular vote--a significant benchmark in itself, if you play the right games with Florida/Michigan.

National Review's eye on the exit polls has her getting a 10% bump from cross-registering Republicans. I'd like to see some more corroboration of this, but if true does it mean Ms. Clinton owes her win to Operation Chaos? That's world-class mischief....

Also, saw a pointer to this article on McCain's polling "ceiling" in The Atlantic. I'm not sure that 45% is a ceiling, considering the early date, his "background" status right now, and the unpredictability of independent voting pending the lack of a final Democrat candidate. One might be able to make a case that it's more of a floor than a ceiling. It's just too early.

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