Wednesday, May 07, 2008

Well, the results are in.

Obama by a goodly margin in North Carolina, Clinton by a hair in Indiana. I think they both underperformed in their "favored" situations. Perhaps even among Democrats each has a "ceiling." Nothing about yesterday, except for Obama's incremental advance toward nomination, should be satisfying for the Democrat inner circles.

Worth studying: Did Operation Chaos really make the difference? It may not have last time, but the likelihood of an altered outcome in Indiana seems plausible prima facie. Again, this is serious mischief. I'm not sure it helps the Republicans in the fall. At this point they must surely suspect that there might be a law of diminishing returns in sway as the campaign comes closer to resolution. Does keeping these candidates on the front burner of the news help the cause of John McCain in the fall? On the other hand, these two candidates are not at their best as they continue to bicker. The case might be made that the electorate will be so jaded by this uglier sort of campaign that they will just stay home from the general election. Surely Clinton's and Obama's camps will consider this sort of hypothetical situation.

No comments: