For the Summer I Class

Here are the notes, as we march through them in class:

Intro/Chapter 1--

http://docs.google.com/Present?docid=df8n9qbt_169cv9vtf2n

Chapter 2--

http://docs.google.com/Presentation?id=df8n9qbt_178c39jbbnk

Chapter 3--

http://docs.google.com/Presentation?id=df8n9qbt_184cxfcv8dx

Chapter 4--

http://docs.google.com/Presentation?id=df8n9qbt_185hpg873fk

Chapter 5--

http://docs.google.com/Presentation?id=df8n9qbt_186c3b7pbcq

Chapter 6--

http://docs.google.com/Presentation?id=df8n9qbt_187cs56vdgf

Chapter 7--

http://docs.google.com/Presentation?id=df8n9qbt_195ghn42mdv

Chapter 8--

http://docs.google.com/Presentation?id=df8n9qbt_209tr5wssfd

Mortality

I've attended three funerals in the last month, all for folks who were not far from my age. The passing of the first was sudden, but not a big surprise: a retired educator who had defeated cancer, was being treated for a series of lesser illnesses, and died of complications from that treatment. He led an educator's life, was a person of service, and the gratitude and good memories were abundant at the rites and after. The second funeral was for a former teacher who had left the profession to take over a private business and do some writing, which she did very successfully. She died very suddenly of a heart attack--no warnings to friends or family. Because of the very special, charitable quality of her life, the service had a lightness and radiance that all seemed to feel. The reception following had the quality of a reunion of prodigals "coming home." Conversations left hanging twenty years ago were resumed without pause. The third demise was of an acquaintance who died under difficult and uncertain circumstances. The funeral appeared strained, almost surreal for the community that was present. I wasn't able to attend the reception, but sensed that the assembly was somewhat uneasy about the whole business. We do prepare our passing by our living.

News Flash: Radicals favor Republicans

Tapes from UBL, the Hezbollah takeover in Lebanon, and more unease from the IAEA about Iran's pre-nuclear mischief all seem to hint that the Al Qaeda and other radicals really do want to provoke the country into a conservative vote in the fall. You would think that these folks would lie low and play very politely in order to cast the impression that their intentions really are peaceful. After all, who wants to believe that they're really bullies?

Either that, or they can't wait.

Pure Propaganda

No wonder the daily papers are having trouble. That this disinformation should pass an editorial board is jaw-dropping:

Palestinians marked the 60th anniversary of their uprooting with rallies, sirens and black balloons today -- an annual ritual made even darker this year by crippling internal divisions and diminishing independence hopes.

... Today's events commemorated the displacement of hundreds of thousands of Palestinians who either fled or were driven out of their homes during the 1948 war over Israel's creation. Palestinians call it their "nakba," Arabic for catastrophe.

The only catastrophe here is this version of events. By the way: who initiated hostilities?

24 hours of interesting developments

As some members of the media have noticed, Senator Obama may be wearing the victor's mantle, but he's having a difficult time holding up his trousers. The West Virginia result is embarrassing--it would have to be to have him stoop to the ploy of soliciting and announcing Senator Edwards' endorsement. By demeanor and pattern of choices, Obama appears far more desperate than Senator Clinton does.

There is still an endgame waiting to be played out here, and while the result appears to be inevitable, I have a feeling that there may be some unpredictability left in this complex and apparently unstable system.

An observation

Politics is the nervous dance between ideology and conscience.

Is Mrs. Clinton finished?

See here. The answer is No. She should (and will, I believe) take her basket (a rather large one) of voters and delegates to the convention and insist on working out a political solution for ending the race formally before a floor fight takes place. With the close margins now existing, she can't be said to have no leverage at all. The Democrats can't afford the luxury of a wrenching fight for the ultimate control of the party, even though that might be a valuable prophylaxis in the long run. They see themselves in a must-win situation, and they want a winning unification ticket in place for the fall. A unilateral withdrawal would not bring this about--it's an acknowledgement of defeat, and with defeat comes the next round of treachery, perfidy, back-stabbing, etc. Withdrawal doesn't push the party's core toward an acceptable middle. Hard-edged negotiation does. I don't see that happening until all the primaries are over. They will be in less than a month, without an official victor. The preliminary rules meetings take place in early June. We'll be able to tell then what the weather will be in Denver.

Well, the results are in.

Obama by a goodly margin in North Carolina, Clinton by a hair in Indiana. I think they both underperformed in their "favored" situations. Perhaps even among Democrats each has a "ceiling." Nothing about yesterday, except for Obama's incremental advance toward nomination, should be satisfying for the Democrat inner circles.

Worth studying: Did Operation Chaos really make the difference? It may not have last time, but the likelihood of an altered outcome in Indiana seems plausible prima facie. Again, this is serious mischief. I'm not sure it helps the Republicans in the fall. At this point they must surely suspect that there might be a law of diminishing returns in sway as the campaign comes closer to resolution. Does keeping these candidates on the front burner of the news help the cause of John McCain in the fall? On the other hand, these two candidates are not at their best as they continue to bicker. The case might be made that the electorate will be so jaded by this uglier sort of campaign that they will just stay home from the general election. Surely Clinton's and Obama's camps will consider this sort of hypothetical situation.

Secondary guesses on the primary

Fox has a pretty steady 53-54% share running for Hilary with 35% of precincts reporting. If that holds, then she's somewhat undershot the punditry's bar for her. Now she and her folks will have to blab it up as a triumph of epic proportions. In fact, they already are. The race goes on. And Barone is now saying that this will give her a very slight lead in total popular vote--a significant benchmark in itself, if you play the right games with Florida/Michigan.

National Review's eye on the exit polls has her getting a 10% bump from cross-registering Republicans. I'd like to see some more corroboration of this, but if true does it mean Ms. Clinton owes her win to Operation Chaos? That's world-class mischief....

Also, saw a pointer to this article on McCain's polling "ceiling" in The Atlantic. I'm not sure that 45% is a ceiling, considering the early date, his "background" status right now, and the unpredictability of independent voting pending the lack of a final Democrat candidate. One might be able to make a case that it's more of a floor than a ceiling. It's just too early.

The team we're supposed to see

Today's 6-4 victory displayed the Astros team we're supposed to see: contributions from hitters up and down, good selectivity by the hitters, getting men on base (Matsui in the 2-spot helps a lot), competitive pitching, and the closer, Val Verde, in something resembling closer form.

Do that again.